Don’t speculate, simulate!

Just a pointer to a further post on COVID-19 simulation that I wrote for the R-Views blog.

Tim Churches (South Western Sydney Clinical School, UNSW Medicine & Ingham Institute of Applied Medical Research, Liverpool, Sydney, Australia)

This post is just a pointer to another post on the R Views blog that I wrote on the use of simulations to explore the efects of various interventions on COVID-19 spread. It contains a few more simulation experiments on lock-downs, with some interesting results, explained in the post.

Note that the post on R Views contains a minor error of nomenclature (a “thinko” on my part, caused by too much coding…): The Q compartment is referred to a (self)-quarantine, when it should be (self-)isolation. The results and conclusions are unaffected.


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For attribution, please cite this work as

Churches (2020, March 20). Tim Churches Health Data Science Blog: Don't speculate, simulate!. Retrieved from

BibTeX citation

  author = {Churches, Tim},
  title = {Tim Churches Health Data Science Blog: Don't speculate, simulate!},
  url = {},
  year = {2020}